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April 15, 2010...As one would expect from Light+Building week in Frankfurt, there were some encouraging product stories for the world of so-called LED lightbulbs. First out of the chute came an announcement from GE for a new A-lamp style bulb that was designed to replace a standard 40W incandescent. The 9-watt unit was is claimed to produce 450 lumens, last 25,000 hours, list for $50, and will be available... wait for it... at the end of this year, or "in early 2011". On the face of it, I will admit to a bit of a "big whoop" kind of reaction. Hey, just a guess here, but Intel is lined up to produce a X.X GHz processor in 2011, and Samsung is going to produce LED TVs that drop in price by XX% (you fill in the X's with numbers that feel good, and you'll probably be right enough). It's tricky to get excited about a 2011 product announcement that has the makings of a "been there, done that". At least by 2011 we expect the industry will be there and doing that from a number of suppliers.

Cree contributed to the early part of this news cycle with a nice double-header. First, the GE LED bulb news included the tidbit that Cree's XLamp XP-G was the basis of the new "integral replacement lamp" (the industry and Energy Star terminology, but we must be mindful to pander to the search engines with relevant phrases like "LED light" and "Energy Star light", and best of all, "LED bulb"... errgg). Even a nice quote from Norbert Hiller, Cree's GM and an all-around nice guy. Now that announcement was cool, since a) GE is presumably going to be big in LED lightbulbs, simply on the power of the brand and b) GE has its Lumination group, which also makes LEDs and LED products. Cree getting slotted in to a GE product, at more than just the rumor level, takes some doing. Hats off to Cree for that one. They also stirred up some other interesting news with the announcement of their new XM LED that delivers a nominal 160 lm/watt in cool white. It's a bigger chip, and when you drive it a bit harder, it can still produce 110 lm/watt while pumping out 750 lumens, which is enough to call itself a "60 watt replacement" on less than 7 watts, although technically the cool white isn't part of the Energy Star matrix. Availability is "Fall", which a testy buyer once pointed out to me is "a season, not a date". Nonetheless, the efficiency bar is being consistently raised by all the major players, and it's happening now.

Osram popped up this week as a contributor to the industry narrative with its own announcement of a 122 lm/w warm white module that pumps out 1800 lumens at just 15 watts. That's good on the face of it, and even gooder when you add in that the module is a very warm 2700K, and produces a CRI of greater than 90. For those still new to the LED-level of lighting technology, the basic formula for white is to excite a glob of phosphor with a pure blue "emitter" (LED), and the warmer the CCT, the less efficiently that will happen.

It's the same basic principal that makes a fluorescent bulb work, except in that case, it's a "beyond blue" high-voltage ultraviolet arc that is doing the exciting of the phosphors coating the inside of the tube. In both cases, the warmer and more rich you make the colors, the more broad-spectrum phosphor you need for the job. Exciting more kinds of phosphor cuts down the efficiency in lumens per watt, as you are spreading the initial amount of photons over a wider array of colors, and in the process, some of them don't make it out alive. (Do not mourn them, for energy is neither created nor destroyed, it's just shifted off to some other form). For an LED setup, there are other tricks you can add when you have multiple LED chips making up a module, such as throwing a few red ones in the mix to "warm" the color up without the need to phosphor-convert the red portion of your mix. Green LEDs are still lagging in their efficiency, so converting from blue or projecting a native green is pretty much a wash.

With a warm white starting point of better than 120 lm/watt, it would almost appear like it will soon take extra effort to design a downlight badly enough to produce less than 80 lm/watt ("Darn, it's still too efficient Joe... we need a crummier power supply and some really bad optics").

Not to be outdone at Light+Building, Philips showed its own 60w replacement that it plans for availability at the end of the year. The specs put it a step up from the GE announcement, claiming 806 lumens from 12 watts of input, which puts it at 67 lm/w compared to GE's 50. Philips is reportedly using its own Luxeon LEDs from Lumileds, and was the first company to offer a submission into the US Department of Energy's L-Prize competition, so there is no doubt they are serious, and with good reason to be. While the 2010 US market for 400-500 lumen bulbs (incandescent and CFL) is pegged at around 160 million units, the 725-750 lumen market ("60-watt equivalent") is a whopping 700 million units. 700M x 725lm @$.01/lm baselines at $5B worth of LEDs... if the magic wand replaced all the incumbents this year, without a huge pricing drop. Of course, that would tank numbers in subsequent years, since these won't be dying out in 1000-2000 hours of use... (Don't send us corrective letters on that one... it's just an intellectual exercise to keep everyone racing to get that 1st 100% of the market, so no one else gets a crack for the next 7 years...).

Along with that announcement, Philips also talked about improvements in its MASTER LEDspot MR-16 LED replacements. They've apparently added some electronic tricks to fool a conventional transformer into seeing the amount of load it needs to stay happy (presumably more sophisticated than adding a resistor to simulate extra load, as some auto tailight manufacturers were forced to do in order to keep the car's electronics from assuming the light was out because of the ultra-low power draw), or it may simply be conditioning the voltage, which typically rises on transformers when they see too light a load on the line. Classic low voltage failure mode. Some lights burn out, load decreases, voltage rises so the remaining bulbs are being progressively over-driven as the cascade failure rapidly continues.

So what are we watching for as the replacement bulb market shapes up? As we've said before, branding is king. While we expect some new entrants to have some good ideas, when it comes to the consumer market, especially with a long-lifetime not cheap item, brand reputation is going to speak volumes. I know GE, Philips or Osram Sylvania will be in business a few years from now, and they can make good on their warranty promise. Even at $40-$50, knocked down by $20 with incentives and rebates, daring consumers who like saving energy, and have some extra cash they don't mind investing in the "I have LED light bulbs that actually look good" prestige, will need confidence that the product is backed up. The "new guys" will have a tougher sell, to both the consumers and the retailers, to convince them they will be around if the bulb tanks up prematurely. Given the brand strength the leaders have, it is only natural that they can announce products that might be a little too pricey, or a little lower on lumens, which will act as "placeholders" for some pretty on-target (and on-price) LED bulbs come 2011 and 2012.

It's all about establishing the brand. If you are a replacement lamp manufacturer with a quality product, and more to come down the road, there isn't a better place to start than with Solid State Lighting Design. Widely read and growing, SSL Design News, and the SSL Summit conference series, offer competitive and wide-reaching brand exposure for luminaire and lamp manfacturers, as well as the companies that supply to them. Contact us today at branding2010@solidstatelightingdesign.com to see how we can help.

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Drive to Make Consumer Products Smarter About Energy Consumption and California Smart Electronics Act BillScott McMahan, SSLightingDesign News Editor

Seoul Optodevice and Sanan Optoelectronics to Boost HB-LED Production with New Veeco MOCVD SystemsLIGHTimes News Staff

Automotive Supplier Hella to Expand in North America and Offer LED Street LightsLIGHTimes News Staff

LED Epiwafer Producing Joint Venture Partners from Mainland China and Taiwan Place Large Order for Aixtron MOCVD ToolLIGHTimes News Staff

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